ING updated its oil price forecast upwards

The Dutch financial group ING expects a more significant increase in the price of Brent oil than before, due to the ongoing shortage of energy resources in global markets and the war unleashed by Russia against Ukraine. And although sanctions against the Russian energy sector have not yet been introduced, oil purchases from the Russian Federation are already declining. According to the group’s experts, the supply from the Russian Federation in the coming months may decrease by 2 million barrels per day. In this regard, it is expected that in the II quarter a barrel of Brent oil may cost $102. The forecast for the entire current year has been raised from $76 expected in January to $96 per barrel. If sanctions are imposed specifically against the export of Russian oil, then during this year, there may be jumps in the price of Brent up to $150 per barrel. Nevertheless, after the embargo, oil supplies from the Russian Federation can be carried out to those countries that do not join the sanctions. Russia will be forced to resort to more significant discounts, which will allow China to further increase its share in oil purchases from the Russian Federation. India can follow suit. In this regard, after a sharp jump in the cost of Brent, it may then drop to $115-120 per barrel within a year.


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Arseny Kudrin

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